Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is. In our average of polls of the generic congressional ballot, 3 Democrats currently lead by 0. For more forecast content, listen to the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast and subscribe to our YouTube channel!Shown below is 538 ’s own record ( 2/23/21) of its generic ballot results compared with the actual national vote. Aug. 6 national generic ballot after accounting for uncontested seats, most of which were won by Republican candidates this year. The Second GOP Debate Could Be Smaller, With Or Without Trump Sep 14, 2023; 2024 Election. Organizations are considered partisan if they operate on behalf of a candidate, party, campaign committee, PAC, super PAC, hybrid PAC, 501(c)(4), 501(c)(5) or 501(c)(6) organization that conducts a large majority of its political activity on behalf of one political. Ahead of the U. 83%. Organizations are considered partisan if they operate on behalf of a candidate, party, campaign committee, PAC, super PAC, hybrid PAC, 501(c)(4), 501(c)(5) or 501(c)(6) organization that conducts a large majority of its political activity on behalf of one political. The Republican Party currently controls the U. 5 percent disapprove (a net approval rating of. 0 points. 6. FiveThirtyEight uses statistical analysis - hard numbers - to tell compelling stories about elections, politics and American society. Organizations are considered partisan if they operate on behalf of a candidate, party, campaign committee, PAC, super PAC, hybrid PAC, 501(c)(4), 501(c)(5) or 501(c)(6) organization that conducts a large majority of its political activity on behalf of one political. Democrats lose generic ballot lead: Congressional Democrats have lost their advantage over congressional Republicans on the generic ballot, with likely voters now evenly split — 46% to 46% — on the question. Download. Republicans (R) July October 2018 April July October 36 38 40. RCP Average. Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. Generic ballot, 2022. 59. The polling tracker lets you do a lot with our huge database of polls, but for some polling nerds, it isn’t enough. 2-point advantage in the national generic ballot, according to the FiveThirtyEight average. Aug. A week ago. S. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. Download the data. 538 uses statistical analysis — hard numbers — to tell compelling stories about elections, politics, economics, and American society. 6 national generic ballot after accounting for uncontested seats, most of which were won by Republican candidates this year. The next step after Colorado's high court would be the. The House polls are consistent with the generic ballot results. It will take 270 electoral votes to win the 2024 presidential election. Read More The 2023. avg. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is available for download here. 2018 Generic Congressional Vote. 1 30 40 50 60% Kelly 48. 5 percent to 40. The position of the flag indicates whether the organization is partisan. 4. The generic congressional vote rating indicates which political party voters support in a congressional election. Specifically, we looked at what would happen if you made a forecast based solely on the partisan lean of a state or district, plus generic-ballot results. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is available for download here. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. Download the data. 4. Updated 11/22/2023 08:59 AM EST. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. 45. From 2010 to 2022, an average of 161 statewide ballot measures—53 initiated measures and 108 referred measures—appeared on ballots in even-numbered years. Support for both parties has risen since January 20. Read More ABC News Photo Illustration, Getty - FrankRamspott The 2023 elections were a victory for liberal governance. Download the data. And the generic ballot. 2010: R+3. Download. Staff writer. The latest political polls and polling averages from FiveThirtyEight. Kennedy Harvard-Harris Trump 44, Biden 36, Kennedy 21 Trump +8 General Election. Ohio voted to enshrine abortion rights in its state constitution. Methodology Sources. According to the RealClearPolitics average, the shift began a month earlier. Organizations are considered partisan if they operate on behalf of a candidate, party, campaign committee, PAC, super PAC, hybrid PAC, 501(c)(4), 501(c)(5) or 501(c)(6) organization that conducts a large majority of its political activity on behalf of one political. e. Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. Download the data. 1 points. 748. , polls that ask people whether they intend to vote for a Democrat or for a Republican for Congress. Design and. By Ashley. 47%. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. 8 House popular vote, proving that Tuesday’s national environment was indeed only Republican- leaning. America's Voice is a partisan sponsor for the Democratic Party. 2. Earliest day for independent candidates to circulate and file nominating petitions. Club for Growth Action (super PAC) Club for Growth Action (super PAC) is a partisan sponsor for the Republican Party. 2020. Download. The outlook in the House continues to favor Republicans but hasn’t changed much in either direction. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is. Download the data. 1 Oct. Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is. Of those: The Lite forecast called the winner correctly in 482 of 506. 2 percent and generic Republicans with an average of 44 percent. S. 5, 2024, when they must finalize their primary ballot. FiveThirtyEight is tracking the 2022 midterm races for U. Download. 13 to Sept. Friday’s poll showed the generic Republican candidate is up seven points, with 48 percent of the likely U. 2 percent, respectively). When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. All 2014 Generic Congressional Vote Polling Data. 2 percentage points (45. Click states on this interactive map to create your own 2024 election forecast. LV. There’s been huge variation from survey to survey on the generic. 5 percent for Republicans. Democracy Corps is a partisan sponsor for the Democratic Party. Virginia Commonwealth University L. Download the data. At least 15 congressional races already feature a challenger who faced the current incumbent on the general election ballot in 2022. 47%. FiveThirtyEight’s pollster ratings are calculated by analyzing the historical accuracy and methodology of each firm’s polls. The 538 running average of the generic ballot puts Democrats at 46% to Republicans 45%. The position of the flag indicates whether the organization is partisan. No Labels wants to be on the ballot in all 50 states. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is available for download here. Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. A Look At The Generic Ballot. On Tuesday morning, a poll came out from ABC News and The Washington Post showing Democrats ahead by 14 percentage points on the generic congressional ballot. Download the data. November 21, 2023, 3:58 PM. Republicans (R) July October 2018 April July October 36 38 40. 4. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. 2024 Elections Truth-o-Meter True Mostly True Half True. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is available for download here. Democrats (D) April July October 2014 April July October 38. Trump. America's Voice is a partisan sponsor for the Democratic Party. Download. Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. RCP Poll Average. July 15, 2016 Sept. Trump. 2% Republican 45. 42. Climate Power is a partisan sponsor for the Democratic Party. References Presidential Approval Tracker / 2024 Republican Presidential Primary Polls / 2024 Presidential Candidate Favorability Trackers The Details Almost sin…All 2018 Generic Congressional Vote Polling Data. While it’s definitely too early to hang your hat on any 2024 general-election polls, a Selzer & Co. Kyle Rivas / Getty Images. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is available for download here. Download the data. Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. Democrats managed to remain ahead of Republicans until November, when the GOP took over the lead in 538’s average of generic congressional ballot polls. Updating average for each Republican candidate in 2024 primary polls, accounting for each poll's recency, sample size, methodology and house effects. Republicans took the lead in the generic congressional ballot on July 6, and by Labor Day weekend they had a clear 5-point lead. Notice any bugs or missing polls? Send us an email. 49. Senate has 51 Democrats (including three independents) and 49 Republicans. Democratic Gov. Instead, follow along on our Election Day Live blog as we track results in real-time. Pollsters that did not release any horse-race polls within three weeks of an election since 1998 do not have a grade and are treated as a C+ by the grade filter. 2024 Republican Debates. Women Won The Right To Vote 100 Years Ago. 2024 election guide: Presidential candidates, polls, primaries and caucuses, voter information and results for November 5, 2024 In 2018, the prediction was right on target. And 2022, as a midterm year, has more in common with 2018 than 2020. Organizations are considered partisan if they operate on behalf of a candidate, party, campaign committee, PAC, super PAC, hybrid PAC, 501(c)(4), 501(c)(5) or 501(c)(6) organization that conducts a large majority of its political activity on behalf of one political. The position of the flag indicates whether the organization is partisan. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. RCP Poll Average. Filter by poll type or state. 2024 Republican Presidential Nomination. Use the sort to view the polls in different ways. The position of the flag indicates whether the organization is partisan. They Didn’t Start Voting Differently From Men Until 1980. According to FiveThirtyEight’s presidential approval tracker, 2 42. Nov. 0. Jun. In November 2023, we made. S. Our poll found that Democrats would have a 5-point advantage in the generic. 2020 Generic Congressional Vote. 45. The Immigration Hub is a partisan sponsor for the Democratic Party. , Holly Fuong, , Dhrumil Mehta, Mary Radcliffe, Nathaniel Rakich, , Holly Fuong, , Curtis Yee. Trump. 49. Evergreen Principles (super PAC) Evergreen Principles (super PAC) is a partisan sponsor for the Republican Party. Download. Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. On average, Democrats trailed by. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is available for download here. The average from FiveThirtyEight looks at polls from Morning. avg. Why 'Bidenomics' Isn't Working For Biden Sep 12, 2023; 2024. April 1, 2023 July 1 Oct. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is. The latest political polls and polling averages from FiveThirtyEight. voters in 2024, much of their. Download the data. Listen. Download. MAJORITY 255 REP SEATS 240 225 225 240 255 DEM SEATS 84 in 100 84 in 100 Republicans win Republicans win 16 in. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. 4 percentage point over-prediction of Democratic strength. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is. 42. Accuracy scores are adjusted for the type of election polled, the poll’s sample size, the performance of other polls surveying the same race and other factors. 154 RV. A week ago, Democrats led Republicans. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. Biden Harvard-Harris Trump 53, Biden 47 Trump +6 General Election: Trump vs. A Yahoo News-YouGov poll released Friday found 45. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is. The Senate Is Losing One Of Its Few Remaining Moderate Republicans Sep 13, 2023; 2024 Election. RacetotheWH is tracking the latest polls for the 2024 Senate Election. Trump. Democratic Gov. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is available for download here. Latest 2024 Polls; Republican Nomination; GOP Betting Odds; Democratic Nomination; Dem. RealClearPolitics - Election 2024 - General Election: Trump vs. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is available for download here. 3 percentage points (48. Download. Emerson. Also known as Harris Interactive, Harris Poll or HarrisX. Download the data. Visit our live blog to follow along as results come in. Voters will elect a president and vice president for a term of four years. Democrats will likely lose West Virginia's Senate seat in 2024. Updating average for each Republican candidate in 2024 primary polls, accounting for each poll's recency, sample size, methodology and house effects. CNN: D 51%, R 42% (D+9) Democrats won a net of 40 seats. S. Methodology Sources. Where that is not applicable, the most recent 2024 presidential election poll is used. The position of the flag indicates whether the organization is partisan. The latest survey marks a decline over the past month from Democrats’ high point (49%), and a boost for the GOP from its 44% low. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is available for download here. 6%, Biden at 45% — in the RCP polling average. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. All 2020 Generic Congressional Vote Polling Data. WPA Intelligence. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. On Election Day 2022, Republicans had a 1. 5 percentage points, but actually won the national vote by only 1. Biden and Trump are also virtually tied — Trump at 45. For the 18 midterm elections that have taken place since 1946, I compared the final generic-ballot polling of the cycle by Gallup or the final polling average from RealClearPoliticsGallup surveys. Joe Biden Approval. Democrats Republicans; Likely: Leans: Toss up: Likely: Leans: Toss up: Date State Prev ious Status New Status Dems Toss Ups GOP Pick-Up Range Avg Gain Average Gain; 11/6: NY19 NY19: Leans GOPMarch 28-April 5. Download. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. 3Our 2022 election forecast is final and no longer updating. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is available for download here. 1 Sept. Download the data. . 11-13. The data point for 2014 reflects this year’s generic congressional ballot, a poll-based projection of the national House vote. Download the data. Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. Download. Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. Therefore, we also make our data available for download so you can play with. 6 hours ago · A court ruled last week that previous spending violated constitutional limits on deficits, forcing Scholz’s government to put off a final vote on next year’s spending plan. That figure is slightly less than the apparent R+2. Updating average for each Republican candidate in 2024 primary polls, accounting for each poll's recency, sample size, methodology and house effects. 49. 0 percent to 42. There are 34 seats up in 2024 - including a special election in Nebraska - of which 23 are held by Democrats or Independents. In fact, in August of 2014, it. Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. But most of them are. Download. Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is available for download here. And it's been even more accurate in recent midterms, when. Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. Republicans took the lead in the generic congressional ballot on July 6, and by Labor Day weekend they had a clear 5-point lead. Republicans (R) +2. All 2020 Generic Congressional Vote Polling Data. The position of the flag indicates whether the organization is partisan. 2024 Republican Presidential Nomination: Trafalgar Group (R) Trump 50, DeSantis 13, Haley 15, Ramaswamy 4, Christie 5, Scott 4, Burgum 3, Hutchinson 0:. Download the data. Download the data. Biden’s performance across 40 nonpartisan House polls taken since. Murray. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is available for download here. 6 percent to 43. 7-point lead on Election Day, and they won the national House popular vote by 8. Download. Upset wins are surprising but not impossible. And the generic ballot. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is available for download here. 22 to Nov. Download. 42%. 11/18 - 11/19. 2 All six of those polling firms have shown a shift toward Democrats. Democrats. The generic ballot and President Biden’s approval rating have also not shifted very much. 508: LV: Nov. Democrats now enjoy a small but notable lead over Republicans in the generic congressional ballot with less than three months before crucial midterm elections, according to. Download. 45. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is available for download here. Affiliated with professional polling organization (NCPP/AAPOR/Roper)The Republican Party currently controls the U. How do you like your House forecast? Lite. No bachelor’s. Download the data. FiveThirtyEight uses statistical analysis - hard numbers - to tell compelling stories about elections, politics and American society. Download the data. 182. 2 percent to 41. No other method of calculating the generic ballot leader shall be relevant, unless FiveThirtyEight does not provide this displayed lead at the End Date, in which case the lead will be calculated by subtracting the number displayed on the graph for May 4 for "Republicans" from the number displayed for "Democrats," or vice versa depending on. Download the data. AVG. Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. 6 points. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. A week ago, Democrats led Republicans by 0. A bleak Senate outlook for Democrats just got bleaker. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. 3, 2020. The two most recent high quality polls have Rs at anywhere between 38 and 47 % (polls done by YouGov and Quinnipiac). Chris Sununu (R) , Larry Hogan (R) , Mike Pompeo (R) By Martín González Gómez and Maggie Astor. The average methodology is summarized below the table. Includes special elections that took place on Nov. Download the data. Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. Initial 2024 Ballot Donald Trump 40% Joe Biden 47% Undecided 12% Difference -7 n = 789 Trump Hurts Down-Ballot Republicans After presenting survey respondents with a Trump-Biden rematch, they were asked how they would vote for Congress. Democrats (D) +6. Download. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is available for download here. Elliott Morris. Download the data. Douglas Wilder School of Government and Public. (Some of the “national vote” numbers in this table differ slightly from those in 538 ’s record, but the current numbers are all verified on Wikipedia’s website. Republicans (R) +2. Download. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. 7. House and governor. Download. 3 percentage points (43. Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. Republicans (R) +2. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is available for download here. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. Races called correctly. Modi’s government wants to ensure adequate supplies at home and to cool price increases, said B. RENO, Nev. voters in 2024, much of their. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is available for download here. 2024 Elections; Top Stories. At least 15 congressional races already feature a challenger who faced the current incumbent on the general election ballot in 2022. Download. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. The position of the flag indicates whether the organization is partisan. Download the data. Download the data. involved in the Jan. 3:16. Download. Specifically, the generic-ballot polling average the previous September overestimates the president’s party’s vote margin by an average of 3. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. Jan 23 New Hampshire presidential primary election Latest news and analysis Latest news Harris tells CNN that she and Biden will ‘have to earn our reelect’. Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. Trump. Rasmussen has the Democrats losing the generic ballot by 9 points (and has had similar numbers for awhile). When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is available for download here. 0 10 20 30 40 50% Election Day Nov. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. 6 percent). Today, 538 is also happy to release our live-updating average of polls of the national generic congressional ballot, which ask Americans which party they intend to support for Congress in 2024. In 2019, about 39 percent of Virginia’s voting-eligible population cast a ballot, well below the turnout rate in the 2020 presidential (72 percent), 2021 gubernatorial (52 percent) and 2022. Trump. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. Republicans can retake control with a net gain of two seats or by winning the 2024 presidential election along with a net gain of one seat. 0 points. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is available for download here. Organizations are considered partisan if they operate on behalf of a candidate, party, campaign committee, PAC, super PAC, hybrid PAC, 501(c)(4), 501(c)(5) or 501(c)(6) organization that conducts a large majority of its political activity on behalf of one political. m. This page displays the current 270toWin Polling Average for each state. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is available for download here. ”. Download the data. RCP Poll Average. The position of the flag indicates whether the organization is partisan. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. For example, if 44 percent of voters favored Democrats and 35 percent. 02. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is available for download here. 42%.